Michigan Economy to Grow In Line With the U.S. Economy
Michigan’s economy is anticipated to grow by 1.4% in 2024, slightly below last year’s growth, and in line with national economic growth. High interest rates and inflation, as well as negative spillovers from the national and global economies are expected to weigh on the Great Lake State’s economy in 2024. The auto sector will be a bright spot as production catches up after the UAW strike and as supply chains normalize further.
Payroll growth is expected to slow to around 0.7% in 2024, roughly half the rate recorded in 2023. Michigan’s unemployment rate, which fell notably as auto production normalized, is set to increase and average 4.2% next year, a tad below the 4.3% national unemployment rate. Total personal incomes are expected to rise at a moderate pace of 3.9%, modestly outpacing inflation.
The housing sector is expected to recover in 2024 from precipitous declines in sales in late 2022 and early 2023. Single-family construction is expected to stabilize next year at around 14,000 units after a steep decline in 2023, while multifamily construction is projected to bring about 5,000 units to market. Reflecting subdued demand and supply in the housing market, house prices are forecast to rise under 2% in 2024, well below last year's 4.6% increase. Rising supply in the second half of next year is projected to put a lid on house price inflation in the latter quarters of 2024.
