FX Economic Calendar

March 17 – March 21, 2025 Economic report and policy meeting

This week’s focus will be on short-term interest rate moves by the central banks of Japan, Brazil, U.K., Switzerland, Sweden, Eurozone and United States. The latest Bloomberg survey of economists call for the U.S., U.K., Sweden and Japan to keep rates the same. This same survey indicates a 54% chance the European Central Bank will lower interest rates by 0.25% to 2.25% and a 75% chance the Swiss National Bank will lower interest rates by rates by 0.25% from 0.50% to 0.25%. Brazil is expected to raise short-term interest rates by 1.00% to 14.25%.

Monday:  The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for February.  Consensus estimate if for a 0.6% month-over-month increase, after a 0.9% decline in January.  Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to rise 0.3%, compared with a 0.4% drop previously.  The health of the consumer has been a growing concern on Wall Street as many airlines and retailers have recently forecast weakening demand.

Wednesday: The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision.  The central bank is widely expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%.  The FOMC will also release its updated Summary of Economic Projections.  At the end of last year, FOMC members had penciled in about two quarter-point interest-rate cuts by the end of 2025.  Traders are currently pricing in closer to three cuts by year end.

Friday:  The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for February.  Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.9 million homes sold, roughly 200,000 fewer than in January.  Existing-home sales remain near 15-year lows.